SPC MD 1510



MD 1510 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF RED RIVER REGION

MD 1510 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1510
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Areas affected...Portions of Red River Region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161913Z - 162115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few clusters of strong/severe storms are possible this
afternoon along a cold front. Despite strong to extreme buoyancy,
shear remains quite weak and storms will be disorganized. A WW is
not expected this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Storms have initiated along a southward sagging cold
front in southeastern Oklahoma and within the northeastern Texas
Panhandle. Strong to extreme buoyancy (3000-4500 J/kg/MLCAPE)
resides along this boundary and will fuel intense storm development
this afternoon. Deep-layer wind fields, however, are quite weak and
storm organization should be minimal. Mid-level lapse rates of 8+
C/km were observed this morning on regional soundings. Large hail
will be possible with the strongest storms with a greater overall
threat for strong/severe outflow winds across the area. Visible
satellite shows outflow from convection in western Oklahoma moving
southward. New development may occur along this boundary as it
continues toward the Red River. The greatest severe risk will be
tied to wherever storms can cluster together. Without greater storm
organization, however, a WW is not likely this afternoon.

..Wendt/Grams.. 08/16/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36230121 36520088 36129962 35659888 35059766 34649622
            34369512 33829457 33059460 32759522 33139678 33939948
            34590068 35520121 36230121 

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