SPC MD 1513



MD 1513 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

MD 1513 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

Areas affected...Central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 162205Z - 162330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging downbursts are possible the next few
hours. At this time a severe thunderstorm watch does not appear
warranted.

DISCUSSION...A few small clusters of strong convection have
developed ahead of a weak surface front over central MS. This
activity is primarily driven by strong boundary-layer heating which
allowed low-level lapse rates to steepen in excess of 8 C/km,
resulting in MLCAPE values on the order of 3500 J/kg. Latest
water-vapor imagery suggests a few weak mid-level eddies are
drifting south-southwest along the frontal zone which may be
encouraging this activity, and possible extend its longevity through
the early evening hours. With high-PW air mass, the primary concern
is local wet micro bursts.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 08/16/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   33288971 32208848 31408928 31709055 33288971 

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