SPC MD 1519



MD 1519 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO

MD 1519 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1519
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020

Areas affected...southwestern South Dakota through western Nebraska
and northeastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 172215Z - 180015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms may become capable of producing a few
instances of hail and locally strong gusts through early evening
from southwest SD through western NE into northeast CO. The overall
magnitude of the threat and storm coverage are not expected to
become sufficient for a WW.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening isolated storms are in the process
of developing from southwestern SD into western NE within a modest
northwesterly flow regime. Up to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is supported
where narrow corridor of low to mid 50s dewpoints reside beneath
eastern fringe of 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Forcing is weak and
storm development is primarily driven by diurnal heating and subtle
boundaries. Nevertheless, 30-40 kt effective bulk shear and marginal
instability may be sufficient to support some marginal supercell
structures next 2-3 hours with a few instances of hail and locally
strong wind gusts possible. Activity should begin to diminish near
sunset as the surface layer stabilizes.

..Dial/Edwards.. 08/17/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40340331 41060377 42400390 43200375 43490307 42760245
            41950220 41290214 40500252 40340331 

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