SPC MD 1523



MD 1523 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SAN BERNARDINO AND SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS VICINITY

MD 1523 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020

Areas affected...San Bernardino and San Jacinto Mountains Vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 181859Z - 182100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop along the higher
terrain this afternoon. A few strong/severe outflow gusts are
possible. No WW is expected this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently initiated within the San
Bernardino Mountains with cumulus continuing to build along the San
Jacinto Mountains. Within the next hour or two, greater storm
coverage is expected. Flow at 500 mb is a modest 30 kts leading to
25-30 kts of shear across southern California. The is some question
how far storms will move off the terrain with weak cloud-bearing
winds. Even so, a deeply-mixed boundary layer with 100-110 F
temperatures this afternoon will support strong to severe outflow
winds propagating away from thunderstorm cores. The areal extent of
the threat will remain quite limited and no WW is anticipated for
this activity.

..Wendt/Grams.. 08/18/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...

LAT...LON   34731809 35031770 35041711 34871655 34211640 33741655
            33571675 33651741 34381813 34731809 

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