SPC MD 1524



MD 1524 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA

MD 1524 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1524
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020

Areas affected...Portions of central and southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 182049Z - 182245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely-scattered wind gusts are possible as
storms move off the Mogollon Rim. Strong/severe wind gusts will be
the primary hazard this afternoon and evening. The lack of greater
storm clustering is expected to preclude a WW.

DISCUSSION...Storms are developing along the Mogollon Rim underneath
the Great Basin upper-level ridge. Storms will eventually move off
of the Rim and progress west/southwestward. Surface observations and
satellite PWAT retrievals continue to suggest that greater storm
coverage is most likely in west-central Arizona as drier air remains
to the south and east. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-30 kts of
effective shear in the western portions of the state will support
marginally organized storms. Strong/severe wind gusts will be the
main hazard as strong surface heating has deepened the boundary
layer to around 5 km. Without more substantial clustering, the
overall threat for wind gusts will be isolated to widely scattered
at best. A WW is not currently anticipated this afternoon/evening.

..Wendt/Grams.. 08/18/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   34921507 35701446 35611317 34541144 33810962 33160926
            32571012 32161176 33051315 33991472 34921507 

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