SPC MD 1538



MD 1538 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEW YORK THROUGH A PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND

MD 1538 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Areas affected...Northeast New York through a portion of New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 211826Z - 212030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms may become capable of producing
locally strong wind gusts this afternoon. Overall threat does not
appear sufficient to warrant a WW.

DISCUSSION...This afternoon the atmosphere is destabilizing along
and south of a zone of differential heating just ahead of a cold
front from northeast NY through southern VT and NH and southeast
Maine. Temperatures rising through the low to mid 80s F and
dewpoints generally in the 50s F are sufficient for modest
instability with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. This region resides within a
belt of 30-35 kt flow between 750 and 500 mb and 25-35 kt effective
bulk shear. As boundary layer temperature-dewpoint spreads increase,
some of the developing storms may produce a few instances of locally
strong wind gusts.

..Dial/Guyer.. 08/21/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   44077605 44087312 44236997 43387101 43217277 43417540
            44077605 

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