SPC MD 1540



MD 1540 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN

MD 1540 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Areas affected...The Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northeast
Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 212226Z - 220000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing and developing convection across the southern U.P.
of Michigan and northeast Wisconsin will continue to pose a
transient hail and wind threat through sunset. The spatial extent
and duration of the threat should remain too low to warrant a watch.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms ongoing along the border of WI and the
U.P. of MI continue to remain somewhat organized due to a zone of
enhanced mid-level flow in the vicinity of a shortwave trough moving
across southern Ontario. This enhanced flow overlaps a favorably
unstable environment across northeast WI and the southern U.P.
characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. This zone of favorable
CAPE/shear parameter space is relatively limited spatially, but new
convection across Iron County, MI is developing within this window.
This suggests that at least a transient threat for severe hail and
wind could continue for the next one to two hours as ongoing
convection continues to move towards Lake Michigan and new storms
develop to the northwest. 

However, given the spatially limited nature of the threat, only
marginally supportive deep-layer shear (around 30 knots), and some
degree of convective overturning ahead of the developing storms (due
to prior convection), the overall severe risk appears limited in
duration and coverage. As such, a watch is not expected.

..Moore/Edwards.. 08/21/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON   46668920 46648835 46168728 45728693 45248699 44858731
            44978797 45478862 45918903 46258938 46668920 

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