SPC MD 1548



MD 1548 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA

MD 1548 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1548
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

Areas affected...northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222154Z - 230030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated marginal hail reports are possible over the next
few hours over parts of northern Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...The air mass is currently uncapped across the region,
with weak warm advection occurring out of the west in the wake of
the departing trough over WI. Scattered cells have gradually formed
from east of International Falls (near a weak surface low) to
southwest of Duluth, but are likely fighting dry air aloft as seen
on water vapor imagery. Still, northwesterly winds aloft are
resulting in around 35 kt effective bulk shear, which may favor a
couple longer-lived cells capable of hail. The overall threat is
expected to remain widely spaced, and wane shortly after 00Z.

..Jewell/Grams.. 08/22/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   48919414 48779322 48459247 47719209 46309161 45849200
            45769308 46149418 46639470 47509474 48319471 48719445
            48919414 

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