SPC MD 1551


MD 1551 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 231754Z - 231930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of the stronger updrafts may produce a severe
hailstone or two over the next couple of hours. The severe threat is
expected to be relatively localized and isolated in nature.

DISCUSSION...Updrafts embedded within a loosely organized convective
cluster have gradually intensified over the past few hours, with a
few cores briefly depicting up to 50 dBZ over the -20C layer (per
MRMS mosaic radar data). These storms are currently being sustained
along the terminus of a south-southwesterly 925-850 mb wind maxima
beneath a mid-level ridge axis, and are rooted above the boundary
layer, with MLCIN remaining rather strong across the northern
Plains. As such, storms are expected to remain elevated as they
propagate east during the afternoon. Storms will continue to move
eastward, away from the aforementioned terminus, with convergence
above the sfc layer diminishing with eastward extent. However,
stronger flow aloft pivoting the ridge axis (resulting in 30+ knot
effective bulk shear values) along with 2500+ J/kg MUCAPE across
eastern North Dakota may prompt a few of the stronger updrafts to
briefly become severe for a couple of hours. A few severe hailstones
would be the primary threat should intense enough updrafts develop.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/23/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   46900066 47720054 48239987 48459832 48229736 47529708
            46599693 46299768 46750013 46900066 

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