SPC MD 1562


MD 1562 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1562
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

Areas affected...Far Northeast SD...Southern MN...Southwest WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 242100Z - 242230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Conditional severe risk exists across portions of the
Upper Midwest for the next few hours. Thereafter, elevated storms
may pose a hail risk this evening and overnight.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over central SD
with a warm front extending northeastward from this low to the
southern SD/MN border, and then continuing east-southeastward across
southern MN into southwest WI. Relatively warm low to mid-level
temperatures have prevented air mass destabilization thus far,
despite surface temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s south of the
front. Even so, modest but persistent ascent across the region has
resulted in several attempts at deep convection. Thus far, these
attempts have been unsuccessful, with the exception of the small
storm in Sibley County MN. Given the continued convective
inhibition, the expectation is for any storms that do develop to be
relatively short lived. However, the kinematic environment supports
rotating storms and there is a low probability of a strong
surface-based storm or two. Any persistent surface-based storm would
pose a severe risk, with hail and strong wind gusts as the primary

A more certain and predicable severe threat is expected to
materialize this evening/tonight as a strengthening low-level jet
supports warm-air advection storms north of the warm front.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/24/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   45759697 45529500 44129046 43049076 44809739 45759697 

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