SPC MD 1759



MD 1759 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWEST TX…WESTERN/CENTRAL OK

MD 1759 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1759
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0419 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Areas affected...Northwest TX...Western/Central OK

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 270919Z - 271315Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet will increase across far northwest
TX and western/central OK over the next few hours. Relatively high
precipitation rates and lightning are possible within the deeper
convective cells.

DISCUSSION...A large precipitation shield, with numerous embedded
convective elements, continues to spread northeastward ahead of the
shortwave trough moving into the southern High Plains. Recent
surface observations place the freezing line from near BKD in North
Texas northeastward through south-central OK to just north of TUL in
northeast OK. The majority of the precipitation spreading
northeastward will remain north of this line. 06Z regional soundings
as well as the latest RAP forecast soundings also show a
well-defined warm layer between 850 mb and 700 mb, with maximum
temperatures from 4 to 8 deg C. Some modest instability also exists
above this layer between the warm nose and the cold mid-level
temperatures. These thermal profiles support a mix of sleet and
freezing rain, as well as lightning within the deep cores. Based on
recent radar and lightning trends, the highest precipitation rates
over the next few hours are expected from parts of northwest TX into
central OK.

..Mosier.. 10/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34450045 36310000 36779853 36229735 35279692 33849795
            33509866 33579971 34450045 

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