SPC MD 1763



MD 1763 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR WEST TEXAS…WESTERN OKLAHOMA…AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS

MD 1763 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1763
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Areas affected...west Texas...western Oklahoma...and southwestern
Kansas

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 280120Z - 280715Z

SUMMARY...A band of mixed winter precipitation has organized in the
Texas South Plains and will spread northward/northeastward over the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level
vorticity maximum over far southeastern New Mexico was contributing
to re-development of precipitation along an axis from near DHT to
near MAF over the past hour.  The associated convection was
exhibiting copious flashes of lightning, indicating local
enhancements of precipitation rates due to instability rooted atop
the mid-level warm nose at around 700 hPa.  Beneath that unstable
layer, sub-freezing temperatures will result in areas of freezing
rain and sleet, with freezing rain accumulations of 0.05-0.1 inch
per hour mixed with sleet accumulations potentially as high as
0.25-0.5 inch per hour.  These rates will be locally higher near
stronger downpours.

Over time, models indicate that this axis of precipitation will
migrate and redevelop eastward, eventually reaching portions of
western Oklahoma, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwestern Kansas.
Heavier icing will likely occur in these areas in the 03Z-06Z
timeframe.

..Cook.. 10/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   35359830 34729877 34269926 32580008 31660104 31600169
            31540198 31630245 31810276 32360288 33530284 35750249
            36580232 36990189 37210164 37460117 37570035 37519952
            37299897 36709814 36059808 35489809 35359830 

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