SPC MD 1765


MD 1765 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1765
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Areas affected...Northwestern Oklahoma and the far eastern Texas

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 281354Z - 281800Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain will likely continue for portions of western
and northwestern Oklahoma and the far eastern Texas Panhandle
through the morning hours.

DISCUSSION...Morning surface observations show that the surface
freezing line continues to gradually shift west across western OK
and northwest TX. 12 UTC soundings from the region show a warm nose
remains in place across western OK and much of the eastern TX
Panhandle with diminishing prominence with westward extent. This
thermodynamic profile will continue to support freezing rain across
the region as precipitation continues to develop and advect
northward along an 850 mb warm frontal zone. The coverage of
freezing rain should gradually diminish as low-level temperatures
warm through the day from east to west, though at least a few hours
of freezing rain will remain likely this morning for west/northwest
OK and the far eastern TX Panhandle. 

To the west, lift associated with the left-exit region of a nearly
meridional upper-level jet over west TX and sub-freezing
thermodynamic profiles will continue to support snowfall across
northeast NM and the northwest TX Panhandle. RAP analyses and
forecasts suggest that instability rooted near 700 mb in the region
(noted in the 12 UTC AMA sounding) should remain in place through
the day and will contribute to localized areas of moderate snowfall.
This idea is supported by recent visibility reductions down to
around 1 mile in a few locations across northeast NM and the
northwest TX Panhandle. This activity should continue through at
least the morning hours as broad ascent persists over the region.

..Moore.. 10/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   34579993 35610033 36200049 37020029 37219925 36899856
            36449835 36079839 35549878 34899928 34519959 34579993 

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