SPC MD 1769


MD 1769 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1769
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Areas affected...Parts of central/southern Alabama...the Florida
Panhandle and western Georgia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 502...

Valid 290404Z - 290600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 502 continues.

SUMMARY...At least some risk for storms capable of producing
tornadoes may linger into the overnight hours, mainly along coastal
areas of the Florida Panhandle through 1-4 AM CDT.  It is not
certain that a new tornado watch will be needed, but this will be
coordinated prior to the Midnight CDT expiration of Tornado Watch

DISCUSSION...The remnants of Zeta continue to migrate rapidly inland
of the Gulf coast, and the mid-level warm core is in the process of
spreading across southeastern Mississippi into southwestern Alabama.
 This generally appears to also coincide with shrinking of low-level
hodographs, and diminishing tornado potential, in response to
veering and weakening of low-level flow, which will spread toward
the Alabama/Georgia border through 06-09z.

In advance of the mid-level warm core, despite the ongoing weakening
of Zeta, south-southeasterly wind fields around the 850 mb level may
remain on the order of 50-80 kt well into the overnight hours.  It
appears that this will include 50+ kt (and enlarged clockwise curved
low-level hodographs) as far south as coastal portions of the
Florida Panhandle, where surface dew points in the mid 70s F are
maintaining sizable mixed-layer CAPE.  Farther inland, where surface
dew points are being maintained in the the lower 70s, and some
surface cooling has occurred, CAPE appears appreciably weaker, and
the extent to which the environment may be conducive to the risk for
tornadoes is becoming more unclear.  The potential for tornadoes may
not be completely negligible, but it may become increasingly focused
in association with lingering bands of discrete cells forming over
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, before spreading inland across
coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle through 06-09Z.

..Kerr.. 10/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   32328630 32858557 32208498 30788509 29898499 29578527
            29408605 28918694 29038788 29538792 30708720 31928656

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