SPC MD 1773


MD 1773 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1773
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2020

Areas affected...eastern NC into far southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 011636Z - 011830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible by 18z across eastern
North Carolina into southeast VA. A watch may be needed within the
next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Convection is slowly increasing late this morning as it
shifts eastward into eastern NC and southeast VA ahead of a surface
cold front. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F are aiding in
weak destabilization as temperatures are warming into the low/mid
70s. Additional destabilization is expected through early afternoon,
though instability is expected to remain somewhat modest, around
1000 J/kg or less. Southerly low level flow will continue to
increase east of ongoing convection over the coastal plain. 16z
mesoanalysis indicated effective shear has increased to 40+ kt
across eastern NC and the LTX and AKQ VWP show enlarged, curved low
level hodographs just ahead of the surface front/trough. Overall
shear environment should provide a narrow corridor capable of
supporting supercell structures. Furthermore, low level moisture and
instability in conjunction with favorable low level shear/SRH should
support low level rotation.

The threat is somewhat conditional on storm mode, as convection so
far as tended to be more linear along the surface boundary. More
recently however, a few discrete cells have been increasing across
Duplin and Pender Counties in southeast NC as low level shear
increases. Additional CU development is also noted further north
where cloud cover is thinner ahead of more linear convection. If
more discrete convection is able to develop and be maintained ahead
of the frontal band, a tornado or two will be possible. Additional
isolated strong/damaging wind gusts also will be possible with
supercells, as well as with any linear segments along the frontal

..Leitman/Guyer.. 11/01/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   36767724 37467635 37427582 37227536 36717517 35757525
            35087555 34507652 33817776 33707807 33877847 34137867
            34447865 35077821 35627783 36517735 36767724 

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