SPC MD 1775



MD 1775 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MT

MD 1775 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1775
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020

Areas affected...Central/Eastern MT

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 081627Z - 082130Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall and potential blizzard conditions are
expected to continue eastward from central into eastern MT this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery and surface observation
show a large area of moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall from
central into eastern MT. A surface low is centered just east of the
MT/SD/ND border intersection, with an associated frontogenetic band
across northeast MT contributing to the heaviest precipitation
currently. Given the higher radar reflectivity and lower correlation
coefficient within this band, some melting into freezing rain at the
surface may be currently ongoing. However, with the continued cold
advection as well as persistent frontogenesis, which will be
augmented by ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough,
the expectation is for a band of heavy snow to develop from roughly
HVR (in Hill County MT) southeastward to MLS (in Custer County MT)
over the next few hours. Snowfall rates for 1" to 2" per hour are
possible, with rates likely maximized between 18 and 21Z. 

In addition to this heavy snowfall, wind gusts across central MT
have generally been around 25 to 30 kt, which is very near blizzard
criteria. These gusty winds are expected to continue eastward into
more of northeast and east-central MT, resulting in the potential
for blizzard conditions this afternoon.

..Mosier.. 11/08/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   46930940 48071029 49061020 49010753 47090528 45740590
            45970760 46930940 

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