SPC MD 1777


MD 1777 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1777
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0852 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Areas affected...west-central...central...and northeast
MO...west-central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 101452Z - 101645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are organizing near the KS/MO border and
will likely intensify as additional heating occurs during the next
few hours as they move into central MO.  A severe thunderstorm watch
or lower-tier tornado watch will likely be needed for portions of
northeast MO into west-central IL towards midday.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent
mid-level shortwave trough (91 kt at 500mb sampled by the 12 UTC
Dodge City, KS raob) over NE/KS and this feature will move into
western IA/northwest MO by mid afternoon.  Surface analysis places a
surface low near Kansas City with a cold front draped from
Davenport, IA southwestward through Kansas City and
south-southwestward to Tulsa.  Surface temperatures over central MO
have warmed to near 70 deg F as of 8am with mid 60s farther
northeast into west-central IL.  RAP forecast soundings indicate
temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 70s by late morning. 
As this additional heating occurs, a transition to surface-based
thunderstorms will likely transpire.  

Initially, a focused corridor for strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph)
will accompany the squall line immediately near the surface low as
it develops northeastward across north-central MO towards the
IA/MO/IL border through midday.  The strength of the wind field
supports a conditional risk for intermittent storm-scale rotation,
especially where forcing will be maximized near the low as it
develops northeastward.  A tornado risk could perhaps develop this
afternoon on a localized basis with a quasi-discrete core embedded
within the convective band or with a small-scale bowing segment. 
Convective trends will be monitored over the next few hours for the
possibility for a convective watch to be issued from parts of
central MO northeastward into central IL.

..Smith/Hart.. 11/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39089399 40729150 40759013 40019008 38539173 37889340
            37869458 39089399 

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