SPC MD 1782



MD 1782 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 505… FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHEAST WI

MD 1782 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1782
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Areas affected...parts of northern IL into southeast WI

Concerning...Tornado Watch 505...

Valid 102130Z - 102330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 505 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest potential for severe gusts/wind damage will
likely concentrate in a narrow corridor near and immediately south
of the stationary front as the squall line races northeast across
southeast WI during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a mature squall line over northwest
IL where a mesolow is tracking northeastward along a stationary
front draped from near Rockford, IL to the greater Milwaukee, WI
metro.  KMKX VAD data show 40-50 kt in the 2-3 km AGL layer and a
slight strengthening of the low-level wind profile may occur
immediately preceding the squall line as the larger-scale upper
system continues to pivot towards the western Great Lakes.  The risk
for severe gusts is highest near and immediately south of the
boundary as a bowing portion of the squall line is more favorably
oriented with the lower tropospheric mean flow during the next few
hours.

..Smith.. 11/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   43498795 42778884 42138948 41848947 41648935 42778776
            43358766 43498795 

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