SPC MD 1784



MD 1784 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504… FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN INDIANA

MD 1784 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1784
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Areas affected...Central/southern Illinois and portions of western
Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504...

Valid 102301Z - 110100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 504
continues.

SUMMARY...Convection in central/southern Illinois is expected to
continue to weaken with time. A few locally strong gusts are
possible with any remaining strong convection given the strong
low-level flow. Given observational trends, no downstream WW is
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends show a broken, disorganized
convective line from just east of St. Louis to near Bloomington, IL.
Despite strong wind shear, limited buoyancy (generally less than 500
J/kg MLCAPE) has limited convective intensity. Strong wind fields
will remain in place with at least weak moisture advection ahead of
the line into western Indiana. A few locally strong gusts may occur
with any remaining strong convection. However, the primary mid-level
ascent is continuing to accelerate to the northeast into southern
Minnesota as well as a cooling trend being noted in surface
observations in eastern Illinois/western Indiana. Given these
trends, convective intensity will likely gradually decrease this
evening. No downstream WW is anticipated.

..Wendt.. 11/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39378690 38638753 38328876 38108960 38159016 38479029
            39528974 40518925 40608870 40448784 40108699 39378690 

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