SPC MD 1786



MD 1786 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN…NORTHWEST INDIANA

MD 1786 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1786
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Areas affected...Southwest Lower Michigan...Northwest Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 110004Z - 110200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging winds are possible with convection this evening.

DISCUSSION...Strongly forced squall line remains organized as it
progresses across southern lake Michigan this evening. Northern
portions of this line have been efficient in producing severe wind
gusts in excess of 50kt. While buoyancy is not as great over lower
MI, lower 60s surface dew points have crept north along the
southeastern shore of LM. With time this linear MCS should begin to
diminish; however, strength of upper support and forward propagation
speed in excess of 40kt suggests the risk of damaging winds is
increasing across southwestern lower MI and northwestern IN.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 11/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   41608754 43868644 43688524 42008590 41168685 41608754 

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