SPC MD 1791



MD 1791 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA

MD 1791 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1791
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020

Areas affected...southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111914Z - 112015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado are possible this afternoon over the southern Florida
Peninsula. Overall threat does not appear to warrant an additional
WW, but WW 507 can be locally extended a few counties if needed.

DISCUSSION...As of early afternoon, convection within one of the
outer bands of hurricane Eta has undergone some strengthening,
primarily from the western FL Keys northeastward into the
southwestern portion of the FL Peninsula. Visible satellite imagery
shows several cloud breaks, and surface temperatures have risen to
the mid 80s F contributing to destabilization of the moist boundary
layer. Latest objective analysis show MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg in
this region. However, tendency has been for low-level winds to
slowly veer as the center of ETA continues northward. This has
resulted in a modest reduction in size of 0-1 km hodographs. The 18Z
RAOB from Miami indicates 0-1 km storm relative helicity around 170
m2/s2, down from 220+ m2/s2 on the 12Z RAOB. This parameter space
remains adequate for a few stronger storms capable of producing
locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

..Dial/Hart.. 11/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON   25308112 26308104 26998120 27348055 26678023 25548057
            25308112 

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