SPC MD 1793



MD 1793 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

MD 1793 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1793
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020

Areas affected...southern/eastern North Carolina and northeastern
South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121636Z - 121830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms across northeastern South Carolina may produce
isolated damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado with progression
across the discussion area.  A WW issuance is not anticipated for
this activity.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour or so, radar mosaic
imagery/velocities indicate gradual organization and strengthening
of a linear segment located over northeastern South Carolina
near/northeast of FLO, with other convection increasing downstream
of these areas.  These storms are in a marginally unstable
warm-sector environment, with 70s dewpoints helping to maintain
roughly 1000 J/kg MUCAPE despite poor lapse rates aloft and
widespread clouds/precipitation across the region.  Nevertheless,
deep shear profiles support some organization, with 125-150 J/kg
0-3km SRH values supporting occasional rotation in the most
persistent convection.  This environment may support an isolated
tornado or damaging wind gusts with - especially with convection
that can remain rooted near the surface and away from an
undercutting, convectively modified boundary from near CLT to GSB to
ECG.  Overall trends suggest that the environment will be too
marginal to support any WW issuance.

..Cook.. 11/12/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   35957548 35857657 35407852 34857952 34167986 33517968
            33217929 33307865 33817761 34897605 35377525 35957548 

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