SPC MD 1796



MD 1796 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN ARKANSAS…SOUTHEAST MISSOURI…SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

MD 1796 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1796
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Areas affected...Northern Arkansas...Southeast Missouri...Southern
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 150432Z - 150630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across northeast Arkansas into
extreme southern Illinois after midnight.

DISCUSSION...Sharp cold front is surging southeast at roughly 30kt,
currently extending from central MO-northwest AR-southern OK. This
boundary is quickly approaching the pre-frontal convective band that
developed earlier this evening over MO, and will soon undercut the
northwest AR activity. With time a broken squall line should evolve
along the wind shift which will progress toward the MS River, likely
extending from southern IL into extreme northeast AR by 730-08z. As
the convection becomes more linear in nature, gusty winds should be
the primary risk. Will continue to monitor this evolving squall line
and the possibility for a new severe thunderstorm watch downstream.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 11/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35689287 37709015 37258890 35839013 34859204 35689287 

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