SPC MD 1797


MD 1797 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1797
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

Areas affected...northern Ohio...southeast Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151458Z - 151630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A brief period of sufficient destabilization may occur
ahead of developing thunderstorms over southern Lower MI and eastern
IN.  As this activity moves east-northeast into northern OH and
southeast Lower MI, an isolated risk for strong to locally severe
gusts could continue.  Convective trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broken band of thunderstorms
immediately ahead of a cold front ---analyzed at 945am EST from
southwestern Lower MI southward through eastern IN--- that is
sweeping eastward across the southern Great Lakes.  Water-vapor
imagery shows a powerful mid-level shortwave trough concurrently
moving into the Great Lakes and 4am CST KILX VAD data indicated a
130-kt 6-km AGL speed max moving into the southern Great Lakes.  The
strong forcing for ascent/intense shear setup will probably aid in
storm organization with time.  Nonetheless, only lower to mid 50s F
temperatures have been analyzed to the west of the light-rain shield
over northern OH and far southeast Lower MI 60 mi to the east of the
convective band.  Appreciable uncertainty remains whether sufficient
destabilization will occur across southeast Lower MI per latest
forecast soundings.  It seems surface temperatures could perhaps be
slightly warmer and greater destabilization could occur across
northern OH, due to cloud breaks in northwest OH spreading eastward
across the south shore of Lake Erie.  A 51-kt gust was observed at
the Muncie, IN ASOS as of 941am EST.  In summary, the risk for
strong to locally severe gusts may be greatest across northern OH
where destabilization (100-250 J/kg MUCAPE) is most probable over
the next several hours.

..Smith/Grams.. 11/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   41398473 42718346 43028243 41978089 41148144 40648245
            40448471 41398473 

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