SPC MD 1798


MD 1798 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1798
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

Areas affected...north-central and northeast OH...far northwest PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 151633Z - 151730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A broken band of linear segments will potentially be
capable of isolated to widely scattered 55-70 mph gusts across
north-central into northeast OH through 2pm EST.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery as of 1120am EST shows a broken band of
thunderstorms near the I-75 corridor from Cincinnati north to
Toledo.  Surface observations across northern OH show temperatures
in the mid 50s and surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 40s in
northeast OH to the lower 50s in central OH.  Both ASOS at Lima, OH
and Findlay, OH recently observed measured 57-kt and 53-kt gusts
with the convective band.  

Visible-satellite imagery shows a relatively narrow but significant
area of cloud breaks immediately ahead of the convective band from
southwest OH northward to west-central Lake Erie.  The zone of cloud
breaks will likely shift eastward and be maintained due in part to
mid-level dry air (reference water-vapor imagery) wrapping
cyclonically through the base of the mid-level shortwave trough over
the Great Lakes.

Given the above mentioned factors influencing destabilization, it
appears at least 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE will probably develop northeast
from central OH into northeast OH during the next several hours. 
Given the 60-kt flow at 2-km AGL at KCLE VAD, it seems plausible a
risk for severe thunderstorms will continue into north-central OH
during the next hour and eventually into northeast OH.  It is more
uncertain whether a risk will eventually spread into parts of
northwest PA.  However, some short-term CAM guidance does indicate a
low-topped convective band moves through this region this afternoon.

..Smith/Grams.. 11/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   41458327 42128159 42437979 41787944 41267969 40608096
            39908395 41458327 

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