SPC MD 1799


MD 1799 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1799
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

Areas affected...northeast OH

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509...

Valid 151727Z - 151900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509

SUMMARY...Relatively higher concentration for potential severe gusts
(60-70 mph) will probably focus near the I-90 corridor in northeast
OH coincident with the longer duration cloud breaks evident in
visible-satellite imagery.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a relatively wider
pocket of cloud breaks moving across northeast OH ahead of the
thunderstorm band approaching the west-Cleveland suburbs as of
1225pm EST.  The low-topped convective band is moving east around 50
kt.  12pm EST surface observations in the greater Cleveland vicinity
show temperatures have warmed into the upper 50s-60 deg F range. 
Both 12z NAM and 16z RAP forecast soundings are too cool (1-4 deg C
at the surface) and are therefore under-representing the magnitude
of available buoyancy in objective analysis.  Given the strongly
forced squall line rapid motion and appreciable destabilization
located downstream over the I-90 corridor, expecting a relative
concentration of severe gusts (60-70 mph) during the next 1-2 hours
in the greater Cleveland vicinity.

..Smith.. 11/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   41528213 42078066 41458067 40808215 41528213 

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