SPC MD 1800



MD 1800 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509… FOR WESTERN NY…WESTERN PA

MD 1800 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1800
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

Areas affected...western NY...western PA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509...

Valid 151816Z - 151945Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 509
continues.

SUMMARY...It remains uncertain whether an additional severe
thunderstorm watch will be needed across western NY and western PA,
but short-term trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Widespread measured severe gusts (50-65 kt) are
occurring across central and northeast OH per recent surface
observations.  The Cleveland, OH ASOS measured a 62-kt gust at
1253pm EST.  Surface temperatures in northeast OH range from the mid
50s F in Ashtabula County to around 60 F in Cleveland.  Temperatures
in western NY per NY Mesonet site data show temperatures gradually
warming into the lower 50s.  

Given trends in recent NAM/RAP forecast soundings being too cool
compared to observed temperatures in northeast OH, it is reasonable
to assume a cool bias for western NY.  KBUF VAD is showing 65 kt at
1 km AGL and 100 kt at 6 km AGL.  The intense wind fields coupled
with the broken band of storms moving rapidly northeast along the
I-90 corridor suggest at least an isolated risk for severe gusts and
wind damage across western NY.  If a brief period (30-60 minutes) of
cloud breaks can develop ahead of the convective line prior to
moving into northwest PA, a potentially more widespread threat for
severe gusts could develop across western NY.

..Smith.. 11/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON   42477980 43277896 43377781 43067758 41777836 41007877
            40337935 39878024 39988089 40558024 40777961 41777944
            42477980 

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