SPC MD 1801



MD 1801 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

MD 1801 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1801
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid Atlantic into southern New
England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 152033Z - 152300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat will increase later this
afternoon into the evening, in association with low-topped
convection. Watch issuance will become increasingly probable later
this afternoon once development of an organized squall line appears
imminent.

DISCUSSION...A cold front is expected to accelerate eastward through
much of PA and adjacent portions of the Mid Atlantic and southern
New England late this afternoon into the evening, as a powerful
mid/upper-level trough moves from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast. While a long-lived line of severe-wind producing
thunderstorms will stay primarily northwest of the MCD area, one or
more additional bands of convection are likely to develop along the
front by late afternoon. 

While widespread cloudiness will limit heating across this region,
continued low-level moist advection should support the development
of weak buoyancy (SBCAPE of 100-200 J/kg) immediately in advance of
the cold front. Despite the weak instability, strong low-level mass
response in association with the front should support the
development of a low-topped band of convection. Convection may
produce little-to-no lightning, but very strong low-level flow
(50-60 kt in the lowest 1km) will support a threat of damaging wind
gusts. Given the potential for widespread 50+ mph wind gusts and at
least widely scattered severe (60+ mph) gusts, severe thunderstorm
watch issuance may be required later this afternoon.

..Dean/Grams.. 11/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   38797807 39787765 40617726 41217687 41647664 42087604
            42427560 42737442 42597320 42297278 41857288 41067311
            39827398 38477517 37827653 38347782 38797807 

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