SPC MD 1802



MD 1802 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO…CENTRAL NY

MD 1802 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1802
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

Areas affected...eastern Lake Ontario...central NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152120Z - 152245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The broken linear segments over western NY will likely
continue to transition to becoming elevated and less prone for
severe gusts.  Unless observational trends in NY mesonet data
reverse, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely to the east of
severe thunderstorm watch 510 over central NY.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a skeletal but sharp convective line
over western NY that has fractured into a couple of linear segments.
 KBUF VAD shows very intense tropospheric flow with increasing speed
with height (60 kt at 0.5 km AGL).  Lightning has largely diminished
with the convective line as it moves into an increasingly
CAPE-reduced airmass located over western NY.  Surface temperatures
as of 4pm EST are generally in the upper 40s to near 50 deg F with
cooler temperatures on the Tughill Plateau.  

As a negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough over the Lower
Great Lakes continues east-northeastward during the late
afternoon/early evening, the strong forcing for ascent associated
with this disturbance will likely maintain a convective band
eastward into central NY and the western part of the Adirondacks. 
However, the minimal CAPE and additional prospects for
destabilization prior to squall line passage, will probably limit
both the magnitude and coverage of strong gusts.  As a result,
locally strong gusts are possible but severe gusts are doubtful as
the convection becomes elevated.

..Smith/Grams.. 11/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43597677 44167583 43707526 42567559 42037624 42027704
            43597677 

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