SPC MD 1803



MD 1803 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK

MD 1803 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1803
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

Areas affected...Portions of upstate New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152327Z - 160200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may accompany low-topped storms
through the early evening hours. Stabilizing low-level conditions
may limit the widespread damaging wind threat to some degree, and a
WW issuance is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...A pair of low-topped squall lines are currently
progressing across parts of upstate New York. These lines are moving
into an airmass characterized by negligible buoyancy, with surface
temperatures mainly in the 40s F, and with low to mid-level
stability depicted by the latest RAP forecast soundings. While
low-level warm-air advection is underway, significant
destabilization is not currently expected. Nonetheless, a very
strong low-level wind profile is in place, with ambient wind
magnitudes exceeding 40 knots at 925 mb, and even stronger values
noted within the 850-700 mb layer. As such, any downward momentum
transport that can occur with the aforementioned lines could lead to
a damaging gust. Still, the aforementioned stable conditions suggest
that damaging gusts should remain isolated, and A WW issuance is not
anticipated.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   42167454 42147562 42257636 42637690 44237631 44797515
            44877429 44397374 43867354 43227355 42947361 42717370
            42427383 42177425 42167454 

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