SPC MD 1804



MD 1804 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511… FOR FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA…EASTERN MARYLAND…DELAWARE…NEW JERSEY

MD 1804 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1804
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

Areas affected...far eastern Pennsylvania...eastern
Maryland...Delaware...New Jersey

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511...

Valid 152352Z - 160145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging gusts continues across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 0511. Damaging gusts will be primarily associated
with a line of storms.

DISCUSSION...A low-topped squall line is currently moving across
eastern PA and northeast MD, with a history of at least scattered
wind damage from Cumberland to Lebanon and Lancaster Counties in PA,
down to Frederick County MD. Storm tops barely reach 25 kft, and the
anticipated line is expected to continue in an ambient thermodynamic
environment characterized by surface temperatures exceeding 60F and
very marginal buoyancy (with the latest RAP forecast soundings
showing 100-150 J/kg MUCAPE, mainly within the 850-600 mb layer).
Despite the weak, elevated instability, very strong forcing for
ascent and intense low-level wind fields suggest that any downward
momentum transport would support damaging gusts with the more mature
segments of the squall. The damaging wind threat is expected to
continue until the squall moves offshore, which will likely be
within the next 2.5-3.5 hours.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   38617500 38537632 38687733 38917813 39707706 40667612
            41397569 41487488 41367427 40987403 40507387 39787390
            39397419 38937458 38617500 

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