SPC MD 1805



MD 1805 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN NY…LONG ISLAND…SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

MD 1805 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1805
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

Areas affected...Southern NY...Long Island...Southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 160001Z - 160100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging winds may accompany convection this evening.
Severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted by 0100z.

DISCUSSION...Strongly forced band of convection has recently matured
along a progressive cold front across eastern PA arcing into
northern MD. This squall line is surging east at roughly 35kt and
should advance across northern NJ into western portions of the NYC
metro area by 0130z. While low-level lapse rates are poor, surface
dew points are expected to rise into the mid 50s across portions of
southern New England. This moisture increase may be just enough for
buoyant near-surface based parcels. If so, stronger winds in the
lowest 1km could mix to the surface posing some risk for damaging
winds and isolated 50kt+ wind gusts. Will continue to monitor this
region for possible severe thunderstorm watch.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 11/16/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...

LAT...LON   41367467 42457174 42247057 41237077 40357362 41367467 

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