SPC MD 1832



MD 1832 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN GA

MD 1832 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1832
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CST Fri Dec 04 2020

Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle and far southwestern
GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041937Z - 042200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado
may occur with a line of storms this afternoon. Watch issuance is
not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...A low-topped line of showers with occasional embedded
lightning has shown signs of weak low-level rotation and modest
organization across parts of the FL Panhandle early this afternoon.
Low-level moisture return ahead of this convection has remain muted,
with low 60s surface dewpoints having advanced as far north as the
FL/GA line vicinity. Combined with poor mid-level lapse rates, this
modest low-level moisture is limiting instability over land so far.
Still, with weak diurnal heating occurring amid some breaks in a low
stratus deck ahead of the line, up to 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE may
ultimately develop by peak afternoon heating in a couple of hours
across the warm sector, with slightly greater instability present
with southward extent (near Apalachicola).

The VAD wind profile from KTLH shows veering/strengthening with
height through mid levels in association with an approaching
shortwave trough over the Mid-South. Enough mid-level flow is
present to support around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear, which
will continue to encourage storm organization. At this point, it
appears that the weak instability will serve as the primary factor
acting to limit a greater severe threat across parts of the FL
Panhandle and far southwestern GA this afternoon. Even so, isolated
strong/gusty winds may occur with the line through convective
downdraft processes. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, as
around 100-200 m2/s2 of effective SRH should be present across the
warm sector. With the overall severe threat expected to remain
rather isolated/marginal, watch issuance is not anticipated at this
time.

..Gleason/Dial.. 12/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   30148410 29808442 29538501 29618540 29998560 30258586
            30638567 31018491 31108457 31148425 31068400 30678392
            30148410 

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