SPC MD 4



MD 0004 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL MS

MD 0004 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021

Areas affected...central MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 010704Z - 010900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A strong gust or brief tornado is possible across central
MS the next couple of hours. However, the overall threat is expected
to remain limited in magnitude.

DISCUSSION...A line of convection extending from Humphreys to
Jefferson Davis Counties has increased in intensity over the last
hour. This is likely due to a slight increase in low level
instability as dewpoints have increased 2-4 degrees over the past
2-3 hours. Additionally, stronger pressure falls have been noted
along the west-east oriented warm front draped across northern MS,
acting to increase low level convergence across central MS. This
increase in instability and low level convergence coincides with
favorable vertical shear and 0-1km SRH values around 200-300 m2/s2,
supporting briefly organized cells embedded in the line of
convection. Some broad, transient rotation has been noted recently
across Madison County, indicating the modestly favorable
environment. 

A strong gust or brief tornado could accompany this activity given
modest low level instability and favorable shear environment.
However, stronger mid/upper forcing will continue remain well to the
west and north of the region. Furthermore, midlevel subsidence is
still evident in water vapor imagery and 05z RAP forecast soundings.
This will likely inhibit stronger, better organized updrafts, and as
such, the overall severe threat is expected to remain limited
through the overnight hours.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 01/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...

LAT...LON   32739065 33119061 33289029 33338997 33298975 33238947
            32818899 32368872 31988881 31798912 31678965 31688987
            31769002 32209032 32609054 32739065 

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