SPC MD 5



MD 0005 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EAST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS

MD 0005 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CST Fri Jan 01 2021

Areas affected...Portions of far east Missouri into central Illinois

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 010708Z - 011215Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain potential is increasing across portions of
far eastern Missouri into central Illinois. A couple areas may
briefly see up to .06 in/3 hr rates in the heavier rain bands.

DISCUSSION...Widespread warm-air/moisture advection is underway
across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley in advance of a
gradually approaching surface and upper low currently positioned
across the southern Plains. Widespread heavier precipitation is also
approaching portions of eastern Missouri into central Illinois,
where a dry 850-700 mb layer continues to moisten. METAR
observations depict sub-freezing surface temperatures, and given the
aforementioned dry air aloft, wet-bulb surface temperatures have
been able to sustain well below 32F for several hours. Multiple ASOS
sites across far eastern MO show that ice accumulations have already
begun. 

The 850-700 mb dry layer is expected to sufficiently moisten in the
next couple of hours to support higher freezing rain rates, which
may briefly approach .06 in/3 hrs in some of the stronger rain
bands, especially in the 08-12Z period, as suggested by 00Z HREF
guidance and the last few runs of the HRRR.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 01/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   38098835 37808891 37798961 37909004 38199045 38639076
            39479095 39959084 40199072 40529000 40638907 40228781
            39798773 39238766 38868769 38468794 38098835 

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