SPC MD 9



MD 0009 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 1… FOR PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT

MD 0009 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CST Fri Jan 01 2021

Areas affected...Parts of the east central Georgia into central
South Carolina Piedmont

Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

Valid 012127Z - 012330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercell structures accompanied by the risk for tornadoes
may continue to develop through the 5-7 PM EST time frame,
particularly with storms spreading into and across the Augusta GA
vicinity, toward Columbia SC.

DISCUSSION...A broken (northeast-southwest oriented) line of
convection continues to progress eastward across Georgia, roughly
aligned with a remnant 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet
axis.  South of the northeastward advancing warm front, now roughly
across and east of Athens into areas of South Carolina to the
southwest of Columbia, at least weak low-level rotation has been
evident along the length of the line.  However, most pronounced
mesocyclogenesis, accompanied by the risk for tornadoes, has been
within a corridor to the south/within the immediate wake of the warm
front, perhaps aided by residual enhanced near-surface shear in the
presence of a weakly destabilizing boundary layer.

Strongest convection is now developing east-northeastward to the
west and north of Augusta GA.  This appears likely to continue to
spread into the South Carolina Piedmont through 5-7 PM.  Given the
cool, stable nature of the boundary layer to the north of the sharp
frontal zone, as convection crosses the front it should tend to
weaken.  However, there appears a corridor across and east of the
Augusta area where the environment appears to remain potentially
more conducive to organizing and intensifying supercell structures
capable of producing tornadoes. This could approach the Columbia
area toward 00-01Z.

..Kerr.. 01/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   32428335 33748288 34048207 33938091 33448108 32638223
            32518296 32428335 

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