MD 0013 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2… FOR PARTS OF UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CST Wed Jan 06 2021

Areas affected...Parts of upper Texas and southwest Louisiana
coastal areas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 2...

Valid 062309Z - 070045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 2 continues.

SUMMARY...A risk for damaging wind gusts and/or an isolated tornado
remain possible, mainly across far southern and southeastern
portions of the Houston area, near/northwest through north of
Galveston through 6-7 PM CST.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing squall line with embedded supercell structures
appears largely supported by mid-level forcing for ascent, ahead of
the vigorous short wave trough now pivoting east of the central
Texas Interstate 35 corridor toward the Sabine River/Piney Woods. 
This is contributing to lift through warm capping layers, but, north
of middle Texas coastal areas, boundary-layer moisture return has
only been sufficient for very weak mixed-layer CAPE across and
northeast of the Greater Houston Metropolitan area.

Based on latest observational data, potential for substantive
further intensification of the evolving convective system appears
minimal as activity progresses across the coast into coastal waters
between now and 00-01Z.  The primary severe weather potential
probably will remain focused with the supercell/bowing segment in
radar reflectivities now spreading south of Houston toward coastal
areas near/north of Galveston.  Low-level hodographs across this
region have been moderately large and clockwise curved, and could
still contribute to a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and/or an
isolated tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 01/06/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29219550 29449516 29889464 29849421 29759369 29119452
            28769517 28799591 29219550 

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