SPC MD 16



MD 0016 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NM…TX PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY

MD 0016 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0414 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021

Areas affected...Far Southeast NM...TX Permian Basin and Big Country

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 101014Z - 101415Z

SUMMARY...Occasionally heavy snowfall with rates around 1" per hour
are possible from the Permian Basin into the TX Big Country over the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined shortwave trough continues to dig
southeastward across the southern High Plains. Strong low to
mid-level flow ahead of this shortwave is contributing to an
expansive band of precipitation from far southeast NM southeastward
into the TX Hill Country. Surface observations are reporting snow
from HOB (into far southeast NM) to as far east as SNK (in the TX
Big Country). A low-level dry layer is likely preventing
precipitation from reaching the surface east/southeast of SNK. 

The shortwave trough is expected to continue southeastward over the
next few hours, with the strong low to mid-level
southerly/southeasterly flow ahead of it persisting. This will
result in continued warm-air advection with resulting
maintenance/expansion of the precipitation band. Additionally,
ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave is expected to augment
the warm-air advection, resulting in a deep layer of ascent through
the cold and moist mid-levels/dendritic growth layer. Consequently,
instances of heavy snow (i.e., snowfall rates around of 1" per hour)
are possible, particularly from between MAF and LBB eastward towards
ABI around 12-13Z.

..Mosier.. 01/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32380289 32730363 33260342 33390128 32299905 31319942
            31960125 32230204 32380289 

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