SPC MD 20



MD 0020 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI

MD 0020 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0020
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Fri Jan 15 2021

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa into
northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Blizzard 

Valid 150937Z - 151230Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow and strengthening
surface gusts are expected to contribute to periods of blizzard or
near blizzard conditions, with sharply reduced visibilities, through
6-9 AM CST.

DISCUSSION...A short wave impulse pivoting around the northwestern
and western periphery of the deepening mid-level low appears to be
contributing to increasing mid-level forcing for ascent
overspreading the Missouri Valley, including within the favorably
cold mid-level layers supportive of dendritic ice crystal growth. 
Snowfall rates have recently been increasing along the Iowa/Nebraska
border vicinity, and latest model output suggests that this may
persist at least another several hours, with heavier snow gradually
developing southeastward into areas near/northwest of St. Joseph,
MO.  

It also appears that this will coincide with a strengthening
pressure gradient on the southwestern periphery of the surface
cyclone, which is expected to migrate southward toward the eastern
Missouri/Iowa border through mid morning.  Beneath a strengthening
north-northwesterly low-level jet (to near 70 kt at 850 mb), it
appears that surface gusts may increase to 40-50 kts.  Although snow
rates may mostly be on the order of 1/2 inch per hour or less, brief
heavier rates approaching 1 inch per hour appear possible,
contributing to periods of sharply reduced visibilities when coupled
with considerable blowing of snow.

..Kerr.. 01/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   42359599 41289510 40919463 39959466 40469578 42239681
            42359599 

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