MD 0024 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TX SOUTH PLAINS TO SOUTHWEST OK

Mesoscale Discussion 0024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Areas affected...TX South Plains to Southwest OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 250040Z - 250315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop across the Texas South Plains
and spread into southwest Oklahoma by midnight. Some hail threat
will be noted with these storms.

DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent is
currently spreading across southeast NM and far west TX, per rapidly
expanding/thickening mid-level cloudiness. Over the last half hour
or so, a few lightning flashes have developed with deepening
convection from Yoakum county to Hockley county, just west-southwest
of Lubbock. This activity is developing north of the cold front
where low-level warm advection (atop the cooler air mass) will be
maximized over the next few hours. Earlier high-res model guidance
suggested this activity would evolve by early evening then
spread/develop northeast toward southwestern OK. Given recent
satellite/radar trends, it appears this guidance is reasonable.
Forecast soundings suggest MUCAPE will support robust updrafts and
there may be adequate instability, given the lapse rates, for severe
hail. Ample shear exists for elevated supercells but the majority of
hail may be on the order of 1 inch, or less. Some consideration will
be given for a severe thunderstorm watch along this corridor.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 01/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33730230 34879946 34119853 33279980 32580183 33730230 

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