SPC MD 25



MD 0025 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS

MD 0025 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

Areas affected...Southwest into central KS

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 250542Z - 251015Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain will be possible for the next several hours
across southwest into central KS, with hourly accumulations
exceeding 0.05" possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures are sub-freezing from the OK
Panhandle northeastward into central KS, well to the northwest of a
quasi-stationary front closer to the I-44 corridor.  An expansive
precipitation shield, driven largely by warm advection, as been
expanding northward/northeastward into southwest KS, and this will
continue for the next several hours.  The 00z Dodge City and
Amarillo soundings revealed a pronounced warm nose in the 850-700 mb
layer, which will help keep the precipitation type as freezing rain
for the next several hours along the northwest periphery of the
large precipitation shield.  Rainfall rates could exceed 0.05"/hour,
which suggests that ice accumulations are probable.

The surface freezing line should move little the next few hours,
which will maintain the freezing rain threat in a narrow corridor. 
Toward sunrise, the column will cool sufficiently for a changeover
to snow, as the primary shortwave trough ejects northeastward from
NM.

..Thompson.. 01/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   38489829 38109868 37639924 37099978 36870016 36830063
            36940095 37290086 37990020 38619950 38989895 39109833
            38939804 38769801 38489829 

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