SPC MD 29



MD 0029 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX…EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OK…WESTERN AR…AND FAR NORTHWESTERN LA

MD 0029 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

Areas affected...Portions of northeast TX...extreme southeastern
OK...western AR...and far northwestern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 251338Z - 251545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and strong/gusty winds
should continue in the short term. Watch issuance remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms along a cold front will move generally
east-northeastward across the Arklatex region this morning. Strong
effective bulk shear of 50-60 kt should continue to foster storm
organization, with a supercell embedded on the southern flank of the
line. The 12Z sounding from SHV shows a sharp inversion around 750
mb. It appears likely that this cap will not substantially erode
this morning. Accordingly, the ongoing strong to severe storms
should tend to weaken over the next couple of hours as they move
eastward into a less unstable airmass. But in the short term, an
isolated threat for large hail will continue with the ongoing
supercell. Occasional strong/gusty winds generally below severe
limits (35-45 kt) may also occur. Current expectations are for the
overall severe threat to remain too isolated/marginal to justify
watch issuance.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 01/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   32209619 33189548 33899494 34569455 34919382 34879335
            34679303 34399302 33909321 32759411 31739519 31779572
            32209619 

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