SPC MD 124



MD 0124 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHERN NC…SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN VA…EASTERN SHORE OF MD…DE…FAR SOUTHERN NJ

MD 0124 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Fri Feb 19 2021

Areas affected...northern NC...southeast and eastern VA...eastern
shore of MD...DE...far southern NJ

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 190956Z - 191300Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates around 0.05 inch per 3 hours are
forecast from eastern VA into southern NJ through 8am EST.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a shield of light precipitation from
the Carolinas northward into the Delmarva as of 445am EST.  The
precipitation is occurring on the northwestern periphery of a deep
tropospheric moisture plume (according to water-vapor imagery) with
origins emanating from the Gulf of Mexico/northwest Caribbean. 
Model guidance indicates the spatial expansion and increase in
precipitation rate over VA is primarily a result of strengthening
frontogenesis in the 700-600 mb layer.  This band of frontogenetic
ascent is co-located with surface temperatures in the 30-32 degree F
range on the northwestern edge of the precipitation shield. 
Forecast soundings show a warm layer near 850 mb atop a shallow
sub-freezing layer near near the surface---supporting freezing rain
as the precipitation type.  Precipitation rates will probably
approach and perhaps locally exceed 0.05 inch per 3 hours through
8am EST.

..Smith.. 02/19/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   38757546 38127610 36517725 35997822 36027907 37197805
            38927629 39577446 38757546 

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