SPC MD 128


MD 0128 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and Southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221824Z - 222030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong, damaging wind gusts will be possible as a line of
shallow convection intensifies this afternoon across eastern North
Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Minimal buoyancy should limit
the overall threat. No WW is anticipated this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from KRAX/KAKQ have shown a more
defined line of precipitation along the advancing cold front.
Modifying the observed 12Z GSO sounding with RDU surface conditions
suggests very shallow 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE has developed. With
temperatures in the low 60s F ahead of the line and dewpoints now in
the upper 40s to low 50s F, convection along the front is expected
to deepen and intensify in the next 1-2 hours. Warm temperatures
aloft should will tend to keep convection shallow enough that
lightning may not be all that prevalent even as the convection
reaches peak intensity. However, regional VAD profiles show very
strong flow of greater than 50 kts in the lowest 3 km. Even modest
momentum transfer within the convective line could produce damaging
wind gusts. Parts of east-central and northeastern North Carolina
have seen more surface heating today and are likely the areas where
buoyancy will be maximized. A WW is not anticipated given the very
poor thermodynamic environment.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 02/22/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   35437818 35647830 35937817 36307782 36727750 36957714
            37087679 37067634 36827604 36517603 36127596 35447634
            34967682 34807733 35177801 35437818 

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