SPC MD 323



MD 0323 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 74… FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

MD 0323 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

Areas affected...Parts of southwest through south central Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 74...

Valid 071830Z - 072000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 74
continues.

SUMMARY...An evolving line of thunderstorms is expected to continue
to intensify and organize through 2-4 PM CDT, and pose increasing
potential for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes, as it advances east-northeastward across the region.

DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in thunderstorm development is
ongoing within a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor now generally east
of the western Missouri state border area.  Latest objective
instability analyses suggest that strongest boundary-layer
destabilization is occurring along an axis, roughly, across Branson,
Springfield and the Lake of the Ozarks vicinity, into the
Columbia/Jefferson City areas.  Inflow of this air seems likely to
provide support for considerable further convective intensification
and upscale growth through 19-21Z.  In the presence of at least
35-40+ kt of southwesterly deep-layer mean shear, activity is
expected to take on increasing organization accompanied by the risk
for potentially damaging wind gusts.  This may include at least some
supercell structures which could pose a risk for a tornado or two,
particularly near/west of the West Plains vicinity, perhaps as far
north as Vichy, where clockwise-curved low-level hodographs are
forecast to become largest by around 4 PM CDT.

..Kerr.. 04/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   37709354 38269310 38699284 38789239 38539193 37219195
            36639228 36269288 36749360 37119370 37709354 

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