SPC MD 324



MD 0324 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 75… FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS…FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…NORTHEASTERN TEXAS…AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA

MD 0324 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

Areas affected...much of Arkansas...far southeastern
Oklahoma...northeastern Texas...and northwestern Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 75...

Valid 071922Z - 072015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 75 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 75.

DISCUSSION...A mix of linear and cellular convective cells continue
to gradually deepen along a front that now extends from near FYV to
FSM to PRX to south of TPL in northeast Texas.  The storms are in a
weakly capped environment, with most of the ascent tied to the
advancing front, although cells over the open warm sector are also
maturing.  The storms are in a favorable environment for
organization given 30-40 knots of deep shear and modest mid-level
lapse rates supporting 1000-1750 J/kg MLCAPE.  Low-level shear
supports rotation, locally enhancing the risk for hail and tornadoes
near dominant convection.  The greatest severe threat over the next
couple hours may evolve near convection that can strengthen nearer
the warmer surface temperatures from Louisiana into southeastern
Arkansas.

Farther southwest, convection may pose an isolated damaging-wind
risk from Anderson to Robertson Counties in Texas along the front. 
Surface temperatures just ahead of these storms have warmed into the
low 80s, supporting stronger buoyancy (near 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) though
low-level shear profiles are a bit weaker compared to areas just to
the east.  It appears unlikely that a new WW or local extension will
be needed in these areas due to the isolated nature of the threat,
though trends will be monitored as the front continues to migrate
southward in that area.

..Cook/Hart.. 04/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...LCH...SHV...TSA...
HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   34369477 35319444 36569388 36879324 36819157 36379074
            35159078 33419134 32119191 31309231 30969330 30929469
            30809589 30979656 31469662 32569579 33109542 34369477 

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