SPC MD 325



MD 0325 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 74… FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI

MD 0325 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

Areas affected...Parts of south central through northeastern
Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 74...

Valid 072013Z - 072145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 74
continues.

SUMMARY...An evolving squall line will pose a risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts and/or a couple of tornadoes across much of
south central and central into northeastern Missouri through 5-6 PM
CDT.  It is not clear that a new severe weather watch will be needed
to the east of the watch, but trends are being monitored for this
possibility.

DISCUSSION...Despite thick low cloud cover in advance of the
evolving squall line,  inflow still appears characterized by CAPE on
the order of 1000 J/kg, supporting a continued gradual
intensification and organization, in the presence of moderate to
strong vertical shear.  As the vigorous upstream short wave trough
takes on an increasing negative tilt, deep-layer mean flow is
backing from southwesterly to southerly across much of Missouri. 
This is expected to contribute to a north-northeastward development
of strongest convection across and north-northeast of the
Columbia/Jefferson City areas through 22-23Z, with activity probably
remaining to the west and northwest of much of the St. Louis area. 
East of the West Plains and Vichy vicinities, warmer but somewhat
drier and less unstable boundary-layer air lingers.  The extent to
which it will moisten and destabilize prior to the arrival of the
squall line and/or eastward surging cold front remains unclear.

..Kerr.. 04/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39319287 39859202 39049063 38349111 36729124 36669230
            37079252 38009248 38569270 39319287 

Read more



Source link

Editor
  • Editor
  • Website is owned by STL.News, LLC, but hosted, designed and maintained by WebTech Group (WTG). WTG is a St. Louis based web designed firm offering digital marketing services and news sites. We created RSSWX.News to help the major search engines easily find news direct from the source, which is the National Weather Service.