SPC MD 327



MD 0327 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI…WESTERN ILLINOIS…SOUTHEASTERN IOWA.

MD 0327 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0327
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

Areas affected...Northeastern Missouri...Western
Illinois...southeastern Iowa.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 072204Z - 080000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind gusts will likely decrease as
a line of convection moves north and east this afternoon evening. A
narrow area in northeast Missouri into western Illinois appears to
have the most favorable environment for stronger gusts. A downstream
watch is not anticipated this evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong to occasionally severe storms along a line west
of St. Louis will continue to progress to the northeast into the
evening. The most intense portion of this line remains to the
northwest of the St. Louis metro area and is being sustain by strong
mid-level ascent from the upper low in Kansas. Current surface
observations show low to mid 70s F temperatures just ahead of the
line within the Mississippi Valley. There, some cloud cover has kept
dewpoints from mixing out with a few low 60s F being observed. The
Quincy, IL vicinity appears to have the most favorable environment
ahead of the line coupled with the upper-level support. Farther
east, greater sunshine has allowed higher temperatures, but
dewpoints have mixed into the mid/upper 50s F. While a few isolated
damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly in northeast Missouri
into adjacent western Illinois, the over all trend in convective
intensity is expected to decrease the farther north and east the
line moves. An additional downstream watch is not anticipated.

..Wendt/Grams.. 04/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   38099054 37959144 38449184 39479248 40079280 40269293
            40589288 41259194 41249079 40128994 39538968 38848966
            38408968 38099054 

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