SPC MD 328



MD 0328 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR…THE MO BOOTHEEL…WESTERN TN…NORTHERN/CENTRAL/WESTERN MS…AND NORTHEASTERN/CENTRAL LA

MD 0328 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0328
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

Areas affected...Portions of eastern AR...the MO Bootheel...western
TN...northern/central/western MS...and northeastern/central LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 072212Z - 080015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe thunderstorms capable of
producing mainly damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes may
develop eastward this evening. Watch issuance is possible for parts
of this area in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A rash of low-level warm advection driven convection
has developed this afternoon across central/eastern AR and northern
LA.  With the exception of northwestern LA, recent radar trends
suggest much of this activity is struggling to substantially
intensify as it moves east-northeastward. Surface dewpoints in
western TN and vicinity drop quickly into the low/mid 50s, with
gradually decreasing instability with eastward extent. Furthermore,
the VWP from KNQA shows limited veering in the boundary layer, which
may tend to limit potential for low-level rotation. Farther south
into northern/central/western MS and northeastern/central LA,
greater moisture is present and stronger diurnal heating has
occurred. Latest mesoanalysis estimates suggest up to 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE exists across this region, and sufficient deep-layer shear
should support organized updrafts. If storms can congeal into a
better defined line ahead of the surface cold front, then the
damaging wind threat would increase this evening. A few tornadoes
also appear possible if storms can remain semi-discrete. This
tornado potential may be slightly greater across
northeastern/central LA into MS. Overall, the potential for a more
substantial severe threat developing this evening remains unclear
owing to the poorly organized convection across AR at the moment.
Trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch may eventually be
needed for parts of this region.

..Gleason/Grams.. 04/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   32848902 31379032 30929111 30539251 30619384 31019429
            31539217 32169182 32849184 33519106 34059071 34769091
            36049073 36259041 36308948 36298820 35688811 34988822
            33718849 32848902 

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