SPC MD 330



MD 0330 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN LA AND MUCH OF MS

MD 0330 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0330
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0852 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern LA and much of MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 080152Z - 080415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado
should continue this evening into tonight. The need for a watch is
uncertain, but issuance remains possible.

DISCUSSION...A persistent supercell that has produced at least one
tornado in northeastern LA is currently moving into far west-central
MS as of 0150Z. 00Z soundings from both LCH and JAN showed a capping
inversion centered near 700 mb, which may help explain the general
lack of more robust storms over the past several hours. A broad
swath of precipitation is ongoing this evening across the lower MS
Valley region ahead of a cold front. This activity is being aided by
lift associated with a 30-40 kt low-level jet. Given the strength of
this low-level flow, storms embedded within the larger precipitation
shield will remain capable of producing isolated strong/gusty
downdraft winds. VWPs from KDGX and KLCH also show around 150-200
m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, which is enough to support low-level updraft
rotation and a brief tornado. The main limiting factors appear to be
a messy ongoing storm mode and relatively weak instability,
especially with northward extent into MS. Storms ahead of the front
in southern/central LA will have access to the greatest low-level
moisture, and they appear to have the best potential to
surface-based through the evening and into tonight. It remains
unclear whether the overall severe threat will increase enough to
warrant watch issuance over the next few hours.

..Gleason/Grams.. 04/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30609357 30989343 31279271 31269200 31549146 32369102
            33049103 33779064 34609016 34948972 34958838 34248832
            33018862 32308906 31038998 30419083 30089189 30279331
            30609357 

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